Nigeria’s Fiscal Gains Under Scrutiny Amid Economic Contradictions — SEREC

Nigeria’s Fiscal Gains Under Scrutiny Amid Economic Contradictions — SEREC

Fwdr Dr.Eugen Nweke Head,Research SEREC

By Frank Odinukaeze 

The Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) has raised critical concerns over Nigeria’s economic direction despite the Federal Government recording its strongest fiscal performance in recent history.
According to a bulletin released by the Center, government revenues hit ₦20.59 trillion between January and August 2025, representing a 40.5% increase from the previous year. Non-oil revenues contributed about three-quarters of the sum, buoyed by digitisation, automation, and compliance reforms.
SEREC noted that this fiscal surge has enabled the Federal Government to avoid local borrowing and increased FAAC disbursements to states. However, the bulletin warned that the headline success masks deeper structural weaknesses.
“Nigeria is experiencing a fiscal boom but an economic bust. Revenues soar while factories close, inflation persists, unemployment rises, and debt lingers,” said Fwdr Eugene Nweke, Head of Research at SEREC.
Despite the fiscal windfall, SEREC observed that inflation remains elevated, eroding real wages and savings, while unemployment and underemployment—especially among youths—continue to undermine welfare. The cost of food, transport, housing, and energy has left many citizens excluded from the fiscal boom.
The bulletin further highlighted that the surge in government revenue has not strengthened Nigeria’s factors of production. Agriculture suffers from insecurity and low mechanisation; labour productivity is drained by brain drain; businesses face high borrowing costs; and MSMEs struggle with unstable power supply, FX shocks, and multiple levies.
SEREC listed several contradictions that threaten Nigeria’s economic stability:
Aggressive revenue growth versus factory closures.
High borrowing from China while foreign direct investment (FDI) remains weak.
Anti-corruption rhetoric without strong oversight and security.
Call to Action
The Center urged the Executive and Legislature to reconcile fiscal growth with real sector development through performance-based budgeting, industrial revival policies, trade and port reforms, export promotion strategies, and stronger oversight mechanisms.
It also recommended that part of the ₦20.59tn revenue be channelled into debt reduction and capital projects rather than recurrent expenditure.
A Crossroads for Nigeria
SEREC warned that unless urgent reforms are made, the country risks celebrating fiscal numbers that fail to improve citizens’ lives.
“The government has more money than ever before, but citizens feel poorer than ever before. If ₦20.59tn cannot translate into jobs, affordable living, and a stronger industrial base, then it is merely a number, not a nation-building achievement,” Nweke said.